Many of you have seen the New York Times election map. I have been keeping track of it for months.
IT HAS NEVER LOOKED LIKE THIS THOUGH!!!!
http://www.nytimes.com/ref/washington/2006ELECTIONGUIDE.html
QUOTE(J_dogg82 @ Oct 11 2006, 06:29 PM) 
Many of you have seen the New York Times election map. I have been keeping track of it for months.
IT HAS NEVER LOOKED LIKE THIS THOUGH!!!!
http://www.nytimes.com/ref/washington/2006ELECTIONGUIDE.html
Also look at the House map. 210 Safe Dems and leaning Dem. 209 Safe Repubs. and leaning Rep. 16 toss up.
Thanks for the link. I've been trying to follow the trends on another website but was looking for a second one to compare. The site I've been using is http://www.electoral-vote.com/ and it changes almost daily as new polls come in. Your site seems to be more cautious before calling a race, wanting a wider margin in the polls before calling it.
Electoral-vote has the Senate as going 50 Democrats, 49 Republicans and 1 too close to call. The latest poll in Tennessee shows that race is neck and neck. If it goes Democratic, that would give control of the Senate to the Democrats. Virginia is close with a slight Republican lead, 49% to 46%--this still could change. If it goes 50-50, it's too bad since Cheney could break ties. The Democrats need either Tennessee or Virginia.
In the House, they have even nicer projections than the NYTimes. They say 226 Democrats, 205 Republicans and 4 too close to call.
In a way, these results were predictable. When you try to gerrymander districts 55% Republican to 45% Democrats, you don't have a comfortable margin in Republican House districts if some of your supporters vote Democratic. This is what can happen when you draw districts with slim margins to try to steal more seats: The Democratic districts can withstand a few defections, but the Republican districts can't tolerate them.
Surely, you can see why Republicans are defecting? Surely, the fiscal conservatives are annoyed with the wild Republican spending. The small government people and the libertarians who like no government intrusion are not thrilled by the Big Brother tactics of this adminstration. The religious right has to wonder about their ethics.
If I were a Republican, I might answer the polls but I would be tempted not to vote. I rather think since these polls are not be taking voter-turnout into account, if the Republicans stay at home demoralized, these elections could be even more suprising.
Electoral-vote has the Senate as going 50 Democrats, 49 Republicans and 1 too close to call. The latest poll in Tennessee shows that race is neck and neck. If it goes Democratic, that would give control of the Senate to the Democrats. Virginia is close with a slight Republican lead, 49% to 46%--this still could change. If it goes 50-50, it's too bad since Cheney could break ties. The Democrats need either Tennessee or Virginia.
In the House, they have even nicer projections than the NYTimes. They say 226 Democrats, 205 Republicans and 4 too close to call.
In a way, these results were predictable. When you try to gerrymander districts 55% Republican to 45% Democrats, you don't have a comfortable margin in Republican House districts if some of your supporters vote Democratic. This is what can happen when you draw districts with slim margins to try to steal more seats: The Democratic districts can withstand a few defections, but the Republican districts can't tolerate them.
Surely, you can see why Republicans are defecting? Surely, the fiscal conservatives are annoyed with the wild Republican spending. The small government people and the libertarians who like no government intrusion are not thrilled by the Big Brother tactics of this adminstration. The religious right has to wonder about their ethics.
If I were a Republican, I might answer the polls but I would be tempted not to vote. I rather think since these polls are not be taking voter-turnout into account, if the Republicans stay at home demoralized, these elections could be even more suprising.
The trends are looking good for the Dems. Remember to act as if you have not seen any polls or heard about any scandals that are flying around. There is much work yet to be done in the next 25 days and it is not yet time to celebrate.
The trend looks very good but in the words of the great Yogi
I will not be celebrating until the final count of the November elections.
QUOTE
It ain't over till it's over.
Berra.I will not be celebrating until the final count of the November elections.
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